Sunday, August 7, 2011

What Got Us Here Is Insufficient for What's Coming

The list from yesterday is difficult to compare then to now. However the cost in hours of work for many things has decreased significantly the last 110 years. A number of things have stayed the same and the coming storm suggests the world is unprepared for what is next.

Cheap oil, cheap in it costs pennies a barrel to produce and distribute, is over. Somewhere between 2003 and 2008 world oil production peaked. Yes there is more out there but it will cost a lot more to get it. Consumption is already exceeding by a factor of two or more what is found. Every new barrel of 'reported' new oil is matched by two barrels consumed of what we have available. The quantity of oil production will fall by half over the next 40 years.

Biofuels will attempt to fill some of the gap but the expense is huge. Tweny acres of corn produces twenty gallons of fuel. It also could feed a hundred people for a year. If you removed everything you currently use that required oil to produce or manufacture... there is not much. The world runs on electricity and the connection provided by the internet offers huge potential gains for all of humanity.

What happens when the lights go out? What happens when oil is $400/barrel?

It's coming and hoarding food, building little mini survival camps in the woods are not the solution for everyone. Don't believe me.

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